Exploring Iran’s Revolutionary Potential in Modern Times

Surprisingly, if Iran held a referendum on the Islamic Republic today, over 70% would clearly oppose it – including the wealthy, academics, clerics, and people from villages and cities, according to commentary from the Brookings Doha Center. This suggests a remarkable shift in sentiment, even from those who were once supportive of the political change and social movements of the 1979 Iranian revolution. The revolution had promised three goals: social justice, freedom and democracy, and independence from great power tutelage. However, the brief post-revolutionary euphoria quickly gave way to the new rulers’ systemic Islamization of state and society, leading to one dictatorship being replaced by an even more brutal one. Modern Iran’s three dominant political cultures – nationalism, socialism, and Islamism – were narrowed to a heavy emphasis on the latter, with the revolutionary movement’s political pluralism suppressed and no veritable opposition party allowed by the state.

Key Takeaways

• Over 70% of Iranians would oppose the current Islamic Republic if a referendum were held.
• The 1979 Iranian revolution promised social justice, freedom, democracy, and independence, but these goals were quickly subverted.
• Modern Iran’s political landscape is dominated by Islamism, with other ideologies like nationalism and socialism suppressed.
• The revolutionary movement’s political pluralism has been eliminated, and no veritable opposition party is allowed by the state.
• The current sentiment in Iran suggests a remarkable shift from those who once supported the Islamic Revolution.

Iran’s Shifting Political Landscape

Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, Iran’s political landscape has been a battlefield between hard-line Islamists seeking to enforce theocratic rule and those advocating for popular will and the republican tenets of the constitution. This ideological struggle has produced decades of political and cultural turmoil within state institutions, electoral processes, and on the streets.

Emergence of the Islamic Republic

The hard-line Islamists in the non-elected institutions of the velayat-e faqih, or clerical rule, have been determined to enforce their “divine values” in the political, social, and cultural domains. This agenda has been challenged by popular resistance from below and the electoral victories of reformist movements.

Struggle Between Reformists and Hardliners

The power dynamics between reformists and hardliners in Iran have become increasingly entrenched, with the reformist camp’s efforts to reconcile the country’s democratic and theocratic facets losing momentum as the hardliners maintain an inflexible approach. Meanwhile, secular intellectuals and student movements have sought to dismantle the theocratic elements of the system.

Popular Uprisings and Protests

The Iranian people’s discontent with the regime has manifested in numerous popular uprisings and protests over the years, challenging the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy. These movements have often been met with harsh crackdowns, but they continue to reflect the public’s desire for political change, social justice, and greater freedoms.

Iran’s Paradoxical Quest for Social Justice

Framed in a Marxist–Islamist mindset, the 1979 revolution in Iran was made on behalf of the mostazafin—the downtrodden—who were left behind by the monarchy’s uneven development model. In the following four decades, there has been intense controversy over the Islamic Republic’s socio-economic performance.

Progress in Rural Development and Poverty Reduction

The Islamic Republic has made significant strides in improving rural development and reducing poverty across the country. Through targeted programs and investments, the government has sought to bridge the urban-rural divide and uplift marginalized communities. However, challenges persist in ensuring equitable access to resources and opportunities, particularly for vulnerable populations.

Challenges of Unemployment and Income Inequality

Despite these efforts, the Islamic Republic continues to grapple with persistent unemployment and income inequality, which have emerged as significant economic challenges. High youth unemployment, a widening gap between the wealthy and the poor, and the disproportionate impact on disadvantaged groups have fueled discontent and social unrest in recent years.

The data in the table above highlights the mixed progress in addressing social justice challenges in Iran. While the poverty rate has declined, unemployment and income inequality have worsened, underscoring the complex and often paradoxical nature of the Islamic Republic’s development efforts.

Women’s Struggles and the “Non-Movement”

The Islamic Republic’s theocratic rule has had a profound and disproportionate impact on the lives of Iranian women. When the new regime abolished the relatively liberal Family Protection Laws of 1967, women overnight lost critical rights like the ability to initiate divorce, assume child custody, become judges, and travel abroad without male permission. Polygamy was reinstated, sex-segregation imposed, and all women were forced to wear the hijab in public – a clear example of the systemic misogyny and discriminatory laws that have plagued Iranian society.

Systemic Misogyny and Discriminatory Laws

Despite these oppressive measures, Iranian women have fiercely resisted and organized against the government’s imposition of gender-based restrictions. While some Muslim women supported the Islamic state, others fought back through street protests, collective campaigns, and lobbying for a women-centered reinterpretation of religious texts. This “non-movement” movement, as described by scholar Ziba Mir-Hosseini, has been a testament to women’s resilience and their unwavering commitment to reclaiming their rights and dignity.

The “Art of Presence” and Resistance

Iranian women have developed innovative tactics to challenge the mandatory hijab laws and assert their right to bodily autonomy. The “art of presence,” as described by sociologist Azadeh Kian, involves women deliberately wearing their headscarves loosely or pushing the boundaries of acceptable dress in public spaces. This quiet yet powerful form of resistance has become a hallmark of the ongoing struggle for women’s rights in Iran.

Bad-hijabi and Defiance of Mandatory Hijab

The “bad-hijabi” phenomenon, where women defiantly wear their hijabs in a way that flouts the regime’s expectations, has become a symbol of the broader resistance against mandatory veiling. This act of defiance, which has gained momentum during the recent nationwide protests, underscores the unwavering determination of Iranian women to reclaim control over their own bodies and lives, despite the government’s efforts to subjugate them.

Iran’s Potential: Reclaiming Life and Dignity

The current uprising in Iran is no longer limited to the mandatory hijab and women’s rights, but has grown to include wider concerns and constituencies – young people, students and teachers, middle-class families and workers, as well as religious and ethnic minorities. For these diverse groups, Mahsa Amini’s death embodies the suffering they have endured in their stolen youth, suppressed joy, constant insecurity, poverty, debt, and loss of land and livelihoods. Thousands of tweets describe their longing for a “humble normal life” denied to them by the regime of clerical and military patriarchs.

This political upheaval and liberation movement represents an opportunity for the Iranian people to reclaim their life and human dignity after decades of oppression. The diverse participants in this uprising, ranging from women and youth to workers and minorities, are collectively demanding a fundamental transformation of the political and social order that has long denied them their basic rights and freedoms.

As the Iranian people continue to reclaim their life and human dignity, the potential for profound political and social change remains palpable. The scale and determination of the current uprising suggest a transformative moment in Iran’s history, one that could ultimately lead to the fulfillment of the original revolutionary promises of freedom, democracy, and social justice.

International Pressures and Geopolitical Tensions

As the ongoing protests in Iran continue to captivate global attention, there are increasing concerns that democratic developments in neighboring Iraq may send ripples across the border, potentially fueling civic rebellions within Iran. The Iranian authorities, wary of foreign intervention, have responded with caution, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei warning the “pious and conservative cadres” not to intervene in the 2022 protests.

Iran’s Nuclear Program and International Scrutiny

The Iranian nuclear program has been a source of international pressures and geopolitical tensions for years, with the country’s efforts to develop nuclear capabilities drawing intense scrutiny from the global community. This issue has become a complex geopolitical chess game, as the US-EU relations and their diverging interests have further complicated the situation.

Diverging Interests of the US and European Union

The US and European Union have not always seen eye-to-eye when it comes to Iran’s nuclear program and the broader geopolitical tensions in the region. While the US has taken a hardline approach, Europe has often sought a more diplomatic and negotiated solution, leading to occasional frictions in US-EU relations. This lack of a unified front has, at times, undermined efforts to address the international pressures facing Iran.

Domestic Power Struggles and Reform Challenges

The power struggle between reformists and hardliners in Iran has become increasingly intractable, with former President Khatami’s olive branch policy losing potency as the hardliners maintain an inflexible approach. Reformists in government have tried to reconcile Iran’s democratic and theocratic facets, while students and secular intellectuals seek to dismantle the latter.

Declining Credibility of Reformists

The reformist movement, exemplified by figures like Khatami, has faced significant challenges in recent years. Their attempts to bridge the gap between the Islamic Republic’s democratic and theocratic elements have been met with fierce opposition from the hardline faction, which has steadfastly resisted any reforms that could potentially undermine their grip on power. As a result, the reformists’ credibility has waned, leaving many Iranians disillusioned with the prospect of meaningful reform challenges within the current system.

Radicalization of Student Movements

Amid the ongoing domestic power struggles, Iranian students and secular intellectuals have become increasingly radicalized in their demands for change. Frustrated with the lack of progress on issues like student radicalization and the limited scope of reformist credibility, many young Iranians have turned to more confrontational tactics, such as street protests and calls for a complete overhaul of the political system. This growing sentiment among the youth underscores the challenges facing the Iranian government in addressing the long-standing grievances of its population.

Opposition Movements and Leadership Vacuum

Despite the potential for popular support to change the current regime in Iran, there is a notable lack of a unified and widely-accepted opposition group or leader capable of seriously challenging the Islamic Republic. While figures like Reza Pahlavi have called for civil disobedience and regime change, they have struggled to capitalize on the people’s discontent and nostalgia for the past.

Lack of Popular and Unified Opposition

The absence of a cohesive, popular opposition leadership poses a significant obstacle to driving meaningful political change in Iran. The fragmented nature of the opposition movements, each with their own agendas and priorities, has hindered their ability to present a united front and mobilize widespread support for their cause.

Calls for Civil Disobedience and Regime Change

As the Iranian people continue to express their dissatisfaction with the government through street protests and civil disobedience, opposition figures have amplified their calls for a fundamental shift in the country’s political system. However, these appeals have yet to coalesce into a coherent strategy capable of toppling the Islamic Republic and ushering in a new era of democracy and freedom.

Conclusion

The 1979 Iranian revolution promised social justice, freedom, and democracy, as well as independence from great power influence. However, these lofty goals were quickly subverted as the Islamic Republic established a repressive theocratic system. Decades of power struggles between reformists and hardliners, along with popular uprisings challenging the regime’s legitimacy, have failed to fundamentally alter Iran’s political landscape.

Despite the potential for political change and social movements within Iran, the country’s historical impact and current events continue to be shaped by the ongoing battle between competing geopolitical interests and domestic power dynamics. As the people of Iran continue to voice their demands for a more just, free, and democratic society, the future of the Islamic Republic remains uncertain.

The Iran’s Potential for a truly revolutionary transformation remains a complex and multifaceted challenge, one that will require sustained efforts from both the Iranian people and the international community to address. As the world watches closely, the outcome of this ongoing struggle will undoubtedly have far-reaching implications for the social movements and current events shaping the future of the Middle East and beyond.